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We are indeed barely alive - if at all

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Monday, 11 February 2008, at 8:00 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Feb. 11th - Cube (Stick)

The pip count looks like a great take, but we have a lot of wastage, and two long crossovers. Stick's distribution is not a pretty sight either with a loaded 2 point and a gap on 5. His looks better than ours though, the 5s that miss do fill in the ace point.

Doing Kleinman backwards - a Kleinman ratio of 1 corresponds to 24% winning chance for us, which would be a pass at the score. We need 25% flat, and should not take with K> 0.9, I reckon.

If our structure is worth +2 pips, K=10^2/116=.86, worth +3 pips K=11^2/117 > 1

If we move two checkers from ace to two, our lower board looks quite equal, still I think our long crossovers are worse than Stick's gap. So I'd guess we're an effective pip shy of a take and let it go.

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