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OLM 20140608A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 8 June 2014, at 10:55 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140608A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

I stay with 10/4 3/1 since we'll often force our luck box opps to waste a turn to play safely to lift a blot. I suspect this is close but they have 10 blotting rolls. Then we hit that about 11/36 of the time. So we hit about 110 in 1296 which is more than 8%. We own the cube, and sometimes we may get a 2nd blot, and still have reasonable chances if we close them out when they have 10 off. I suspect that we can win about 3% of this 8+% chance to hit them. Of course there's some weird variations where we hit them later as well.

While it looks close and I could be far wrong, but I don't think that staying loses enough extra G's and BG's to offset winning 3%, noting that we are often G'd when we run as we can waste a cross over while our opps don't miss.

10/4 3/1

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