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ELO ..Schmeelo ..
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Dayton Doubles 2a 2a Cube Decision (Stick)
Date: Monday, 18 February 2008, at 3:39 p.m.
Lets assume that you can beat these opps 53% of the time at DMP. So we'll assume that at GG (if you pass) you win 15% G's and 38% S's so your ME is 15%+(38% x 53%) = 35.14%. I'll use 35% for the rest of the discussion since increasing 14% to 15% G's seems a bit much.
Can you win this game 35% of the time if played at DMP vs an equally skilled opp ? I suspect you can since White has lots of work to do and if he misses and you enter you can often quickly turn things around. White is committed to attacking on the 4 pt here, so the fact that he no longer needs a G win, won't matter very much to him. However, Blue when pounded into a 2 pt game as often happens can stay til the end and also not fear the G if making big plays to contain after hitting. So the DMP aspect of this should favor Blue more than White, IMHO.
I do think White wins more than 35% if played at DMP vs an equal opp. What about skill factor ? Well, right away there's plenty of chances for White to hack this up, while Blue's errors can usually only come later and often will only be errors after he hits White late and those games aren't that hard to play. Clearly to me, your weaker opps will chuck more equity from this position that you will so I guess you can win this game vs them a percent or two more than vs equal opps, making this a most definate take for me.
TAKE .. neilkaz ..
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