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62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 7 July 2014, at 3:39 a.m.

In Response To: Tricky Decision at Novi – 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 (Taper_Mike)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aBBCA----bEb--d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.	Rollout1	13/11(2) 7/3*	eq: +0.6492
	Player: Opponent: 63.12% (G:27.47% B:1.54%) 36.88% (G:10.03% B:0.64%) Conf.: ±0.0040 (+0.6452...+0.6531) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11(2) 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.6333 (-0.0158)
	Player: Opponent: 62.36% (G:27.46% B:1.49%) 37.64% (G:9.82% B:0.57%) Conf.: ±0.0034 (+0.6300...+0.6367) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/11 7/3* 3/1*	eq: +0.6257 (-0.0234)
	Player: Opponent: 62.00% (G:30.23% B:0.90%) 38.00% (G:10.05% B:0.59%) Conf.: ±0.0047 (+0.6210...+0.6305) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
4.	Rollout3	13/9 7/3*	eq: +0.6114 (-0.0378)
	Player: Opponent: 62.34% (G:27.98% B:1.42%) 37.66% (G:10.14% B:0.67%) Conf.: ±0.0069 (+0.6045...+0.6183) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 35 seconds
5.	Rollout4	13/11 13/7	eq: +0.6054 (-0.0437)
	Player: Opponent: 63.18% (G:23.51% B:1.15%) 36.82% (G:9.89% B:0.58%) Conf.: ±0.0073 (+0.5981...+0.6127) - [0.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 23 seconds
6.	Rollout4	24/22 13/11 7/3*	eq: +0.5981 (-0.0510)
	Player: Opponent: 62.08% (G:26.70% B:1.49%) 37.92% (G:10.11% B:0.61%) Conf.: ±0.0081 (+0.5901...+0.6062) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 14 seconds
7.	Rollout4	24/22 7/3* 3/1*	eq: +0.5915 (-0.0577)
	Player: Opponent: 61.25% (G:28.16% B:0.82%) 38.75% (G:9.59% B:0.45%) Conf.: ±0.0080 (+0.5835...+0.5994) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 50 seconds
8.	Rollout4	13/11 7/3* 6/4	eq: +0.5717 (-0.0775)
	Player: Opponent: 61.21% (G:26.85% B:1.51%) 38.79% (G:10.48% B:0.69%) Conf.: ±0.0087 (+0.5630...+0.5803) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 41 seconds
9.	Rollout4	24/22 13/7	eq: +0.5697 (-0.0795)
	Player: Opponent: 62.91% (G:21.21% B:1.00%) 37.09% (G:9.74% B:0.39%) Conf.: ±0.0075 (+0.5621...+0.5772) - [0.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 48 seconds
10.	Rollout4	7/3* 6/4 3/1*	eq: +0.5471 (-0.1021)
	Player: Opponent: 60.21% (G:28.46% B:0.86%) 39.79% (G:10.79% B:0.62%) Conf.: ±0.0089 (+0.5382...+0.5560) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 27 seconds
11.	Rollout4	24/22(2) 7/3*	eq: +0.5456 (-0.1035)
	Player: Opponent: 60.95% (G:23.94% B:0.98%) 39.05% (G:9.10% B:0.37%) Conf.: ±0.0094 (+0.5362...+0.5551) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 19 seconds
12.	Rollout4	13/9 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.5364 (-0.1127)
	Player: Opponent: 59.98% (G:26.35% B:1.19%) 40.02% (G:10.46% B:0.66%) Conf.: ±0.0079 (+0.5285...+0.5444) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 01 second
13.	Rollout4	24/22 13/11 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.5306 (-0.1186)
	Player: Opponent: 60.01% (G:25.76% B:1.29%) 39.99% (G:10.41% B:0.57%) Conf.: ±0.0073 (+0.5233...+0.5379) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 00 second
14.	Rollout4	5/3*(2) 3/1*(2)	eq: +0.5192 (-0.1300)
	Player: Opponent: 58.54% (G:29.60% B:0.58%) 41.46% (G:10.95% B:0.60%) Conf.: ±0.0062 (+0.5129...+0.5254) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 24 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51727998 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51727998 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51727998 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 4 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 51727998 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jul-05 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 62S-11N-42Z-43P-53Z-22-n-tm.xgp n[D̲ N16 I̲23 d̲38 D44 Q51 Y58 i̲77 Z79 Ḁ102 U̲104 n113 Y̲119 I130] "<=31*15 7 5 n[D̲ N11 I̲17 d̲35 D41 Q51 Y52 i̲74 Z79 U̲96 Ḁ99 n102 Y̲114 I124] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22

White is in a good position to begin adding points to his prime. Passively making the bar point, D (Down) = 13/11 13/7, would allow him to that, or perhaps to anchor on the 3pt, depending how he rolls. Hitting, therefore, is definitely on the menu.

The safe double hit, I (Inside) = 5/3*/1*(2), dismantles the best three-point board in order to pursue an iffy blitz. Blue has only 8 checkers in the zone, so holding onto the block should be better than blitzing. In fact, the blitzing play is a whopper that came out 14th in the rollout. Blue has lots of ways to win in a priming contest. He would have to sacrifice many of them in order to pursue a blitz.

A better way to hit twice is I (Inside) = 13/11, 7/3*/1*. It preserves the strong board, but may overrun the position a little. Even if Blue were able to cover, he would leave a difficult double gap with only one builder targeting it. Having committed to the attack, Blue might have trouble following it up.

The good news with this double hit, and also with the blitzing I = 5/3*/1*(2), is that Blue can cash when White dances. The problem is how to play when White does not dance.

Perhaps hitting just once is a better plan. The two choices are 5/3*(2) and 7/3*. After either one, the remaining two 2s should probably be played from the midpoint, either with 13/11(2) or 13/9. Even if it were correct to split in the face of the stacks White has on his 6pt and 8pt, it would have to wait. Blue needs to bring down some wood.

Consider 13/11(2). If Blue plays 5/3*(2), then this must be the best way to finish the play. Making the 11pt creates a backstop exactly six pips away from the point Blue would be targeting next. This is not a bad choice, and I would not argue against it in a chouette. My preference, however, would be to hold onto the 5pt, hitting 7/3*.

So, consider 7/3*. Seemingly, 13/9 would be a strong way to finish the play. It would put a builder in an ideal covering position, exactly six pips away from the 3pt. Blue would have a good 6 whether he is hit or not. This is the play Akiko made, and is probably the one I would make over the board.

Somewhat surprisingly, however, making the 11pt shows itself as the best play in the rollout. Evidently, the midpoint needs to be unstacked, and Blue needs to establish a presence in the outfield.

Mike

 

62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply	714628371	+634.081	n[D I10 N10 d35 D45 Y52 Q55 i63 Z68 Ḁ90 n98 U98 Y108 I117] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	51727998	+649.2	n[D N16 I23 d38 D44 Q51 Y58 i77 Z79 Ḁ102 U104 n113 Y119 I130] "<=31*15 7 5	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+640.2	n[D N11 I17 d35 D41 Q51 Y52 i74 Z79 U96 Ḁ99 n102 Y114 I124] "&e	Taper_Mike

62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 — Nactation Key

Family	Nactation	Traditional Notation	Note
Attack	Ḁ	7/3*/1*, 6/4
Down	D	13/11, 13/7
Down	D	13/11(2), 7/3*
Down	d	13/9, 7/3*
Inside	I	5/3*/1*(2)
Inside	I	13/11, 7/3*/1*
Inside	i	13/11, 7/3*, 6/4
Near	N	13/11(2), 5/3*(2)
Near	n	13/9, 5/3*(2)
Quadruple split	Q	24/22, 13/11, 7/3*
Up	U	24/22(2), 7/3*
Yosemite	Y	24/22, 7/3*/1*
Yosemite	Y	24/22, 13/11, 5/3*(2)
Reverse split	Z	24/22, 13/7

Messages In This Thread

• Tricky Decision at Novi – 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22
  Taper_Mike -- Friday, 4 July 2014, at 7:16 p.m.
  • Another tricky 22 at Novi – 64P-53P-54S-61H-63F-11D̲-32U-22
    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 5 July 2014, at 12:21 p.m.
    • Another tricky 22 at Novi – 64P-53P-54S-61H-63F-11D̲-32U-22
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 July 2014, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Tricky Decision at Novi – 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 July 2014, at 6:44 p.m.
  • 64P-53P-54S-61H-63F-11D̲-32U-22 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 3:20 a.m.
  • 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 3:39 a.m.
    • 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 7 July 2014, at 3:06 p.m.