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BGonline.org Forums
Rollouts
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Dayton Doubles 2a 2a Cube Decision (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 20 February 2008, at 6:48 a.m.
Ignore the dice, cube decisions.
I hardly ever use GNU as one side stronger than the other as I did in the second rollout so if I happened to set anything wrong some please alert me to it.
Depending on the actual ELO difference the 2nd rollout may give us a better indication of what our winning % was from where the cube was turned. I do not believe it to be that high, but I do believe it to be significantly higher than 38%. I'm unfamiliar with how noise factors in to the advanced level of play and how silly GNU's plays may actually get.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 5, user 5 (match to 7 points)
gnubg 132
user 163 Position ID: cOfCAEwzO+ABDA Match ID: MIH1AFAAKAAA
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.3842 (Money: +0.7129)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.6576
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3424)
3. Double, take +0.6570 ( -0.0007)
Proper cube action: No double, take (0.2%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.6233 0.4252 0.1485 - 0.3767 0.0970 0.0102 CL +0.3842 CF +0.6576
[0.0018 0.0060 0.0069 - 0.0018 0.0047 0.0021 CL 0.0080 CF 0.0099]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.6192 0.4463 0.1638 - 0.3808 0.1003 0.0137 CL +0.6570 CF +0.6570
[0.0019 0.0066 0.0073 - 0.0019 0.0052 0.0025 CL 0.0107 CF 0.0107]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049765395 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0 (match to 2 points)
gnubg 132
user 163 Position ID: cOfCAEwzO+ABDA Match ID: MIFYAAAAAAAA
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.3567 (Money: +0.5235)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.2548
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.7452)
3. Double, take +0.2275 ( -0.0273)
Proper cube action: No double, take (3.5%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.5430 0.3897 0.1500 - 0.4570 0.0936 0.0084 CL +0.3567 CF +0.2548
[0.0047 0.0088 0.0107 - 0.0047 0.0070 0.0023 CL 0.0179 CF 0.0249]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.5413 0.4137 0.1476 - 0.4587 0.1056 0.0062 CL +0.2275 CF +0.2275
[0.0057 0.0112 0.0127 - 0.0057 0.0084 0.0019 CL 0.0312 CF 0.0312]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
502 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049673671 and quasi-random dice Player 0:
Play: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]
Player 1:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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