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NC JP Finals - Cubes a Rollin'
Posted By: Havard Raddum In Response To: NC JP Finals - Cubes a Rollin' (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 20 February 2008, at 9:06 a.m.
#1: Even race, seven crossovers to six. No particularly wasteful boards or anything. From this blue is only a slight favorite. White may hurt his racing chances a little by holding the anchor, but there is also some shot potential, so I'd say it's a ND and a very easy take.
#2: Blue has no attack potential, and needs to rely on the racing lead to take this home. Based on the race alone blue may have a close double for money, but blue has not made the important 5 and 7 points, and is ahead in the match. IMO this swings it to ND, and easy take.
#3: Blue's racing lead is not decisive, and there is a chance something goes wrong when bringing the position home. Being hit is fatal for blue. This again means white has little potential for sending efficient recubes, so this may be a double. Being this far behind I think white has an easy take however, so I would still hold.
#4: White is very undeveloped with only one inner board point, while blue has two white checkers behind a broken prime. I think it's too easy for blue to force his back men over to his side of the board. Moreover, any 9 and 53, 62 hits the white blot, which must be a market loser. D/P.
#5: 11 hitting numbers, which are major market losers, and behind in the match must mean this is a strong double. Moreover, white has an awkward position, so white is not that big a favorite (if at all) if blue misses. The awkward position may provoke more blots from white, so the chance for picking up two checkers and getting gammon is present for blue. D/P.
#6: This one I'm very uncertain about. Of course, a hit on white's four point is big, but a miss means white will probably extend to a 5-prime, and blue will be sorry he doubled. The small numbers that hit are also the ones that could be used efficiently for extending blue's own prime, so this duplication leads me to hold. What if blue rolls really big, like 44, 55 or 66? All timing will be lost. Blue is not happy by rolling 54, 64 or 65 either. I'm guessing on ND/T.
#7: With two white on the bar, and three more blots to aim for, this seems to call for a blitz. But blue is very short on ammunition, even bringing the checkers on the 15-point into the zone while still having blitzing initiative is not enough for a closeout. Moreover, we (some of us) learned last week with the our big cube-blunder that getting the back men through a broken 4-prime at exactly the time we want can not be taken for granted. I think that it's highly likely that white will get that anchor. There may still be some gammon for blue, but the back-men problem makes me say ND/T.
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