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Pay now or later related to a cube position

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Tuesday, 29 July 2014, at 5:19 p.m.

In Response To: Pay now or later related to a cube position (Mochy)

Interesting. I think I have a partial explanation.

I think that in such positions it is more common for the cube to be either centered or held by White. For those cases this should be a clear "pay now" play (without getting into the logic of it).

However, holding the cube has a value which is significant in such positions. With the "pay now" play you have lower cube efficiency since if you are missed it is a double/pass for most missing sequences. But with the alternative play, you have higher cube efficiency.

In fact, if you compare the two positions you see that the "pay now" play has insignificant change in its equity and win %. The "pay later" play has roughly the same win % but significantly changes in its equity (0.351 compared to 0.288). This reflects the value of the cube ownership.

Btw, one can say that you also have the cube option with a centered cube which suppose to weaken my argument about cube efficiency. This is incorrect as the high cube efficiency comes from owning the cube such that White can't use it (centered cube is a effectively a mutual option which lowers our cube efficiency).

Having said that, my OTB play would still be the "pay now" play as I don't know if this is a representative case, and even if it is, the "pay now" play is close enough such that I am happy with either getting the top play or a very close second play (in terms of us humans).

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