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Rollouts
Posted By: Stick In Response To: NC JP Finals - Cubes a Rollin' (Stick)
Date: Friday, 22 February 2008, at 7:16 a.m.
This was the first cube he sent me. Imagine being in the finals and having someone sending you cubes like this? Couldn't be more happy .. he didn't bother counting anything, just looked at it like he was playing a chou for $X and tossed it on over. His cubes kept on rolling and he was up 10-3 I think before I even blinked. Why I wish all bg matches were longer, 15 points minimum, frustrating to watch your opp. make blunder after blunder and win & win. Btw, in case you missed it, yes I won this match and yes I'm still bitching. I'm special, I know.
Cube #1
Match to 13, tied at 0
Blue on roll. Cube Action?104 103 Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.2337 (Money: +0.2338)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.3524
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.6476)
3. Double, take +0.1710 ( -0.1815)
Proper cube action: No double, take (21.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.6172 0.0040 0.0001 - 0.3828 0.0046 0.0001 CL +0.2337 CF +0.3524
[0.0010 0.0004 0.0000 - 0.0010 0.0008 0.0002 CL 0.0022 CF 0.0050]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.6176 0.0046 0.0001 - 0.3824 0.0051 0.0002 CL +0.4849 CF +0.1710
[0.0011 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0008 0.0001 CL 0.0044 CF 0.0066]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
375 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049677962 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Again, I'm tickled silly to see a cube at this point, it'll give me a chance to lose another two points lol
Cube #2
Match to 13, Blue leads 4 to 0
Blue on roll. Cube Action?134 125 Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.3507 (Money: +0.3520)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.6228
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3772)
3. Double, take +0.5170 ( -0.1059)
Proper cube action: No double, take (21.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.6734 0.0342 0.0018 - 0.3266 0.0302 0.0005 CL +0.3507 CF +0.6228
[0.0025 0.0026 0.0005 - 0.0025 0.0022 0.0005 CL 0.0059 CF 0.0132]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.6781 0.0359 0.0009 - 0.3219 0.0300 0.0008 CL +0.7663 CF +0.5170
[0.0026 0.0026 0.0008 - 0.0026 0.0020 0.0003 CL 0.0122 CF 0.0179]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049683634 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
OtB I honestly wasn't convinced this was a cube either though I realized it was a lot closer than the other cubes he sent me. Again, easy take on my part.
Cube #3
Match to 13, Blue leads 6 to 1
Blue on roll. Cube Action?101 93 Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4363 (Money: +0.4335)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.7524
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2476)
3. No double +0.7074 ( -0.0450)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.7059 0.0523 0.0006 - 0.2941 0.0309 0.0004 CL +0.4363 CF +0.7074
[0.0007 0.0009 0.0000 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0002 CL 0.0018 CF 0.0045]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.7150 0.0544 0.0007 - 0.2850 0.0300 0.0004 CL +0.9955 CF +0.7524
[0.0009 0.0013 0.0003 - 0.0009 0.0008 0.0001 CL 0.0053 CF 0.0074]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1570 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049740342 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Such solid cubage, this one gives me a chance to be down 10-3.
Cube #4
Match to 13, Blue leads 8 to 3
Blue on roll. Cube Action?155 150 Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4598 (Money: +0.4978)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.6529
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3471)
3. Double, take +0.3975 ( -0.2554)
Proper cube action: No double, take(42.4%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.6990 0.1599 0.0056 - 0.3010 0.0634 0.0022 CL +0.4598 CF +0.6529
[0.0031 0.0040 0.0019 - 0.0031 0.0020 0.0003 CL 0.0086 CF 0.0215]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.6970 0.1601 0.0117 - 0.3030 0.0608 0.0025 CL +0.8092 CF +0.3975
[0.0033 0.0049 0.0027 - 0.0033 0.0023 0.0006 CL 0.0191 CF 0.0309]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
650 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050023765 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Obviously I'm the one cubing since I'm behind so much. He passed.
Cube #5
Match to 13, Blue trails 5 to 10
Blue on roll. Cube Action?103 127 Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.2792 (Money: +0.2610)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.5999
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.4001)
3. No double +0.3436 ( -0.2563)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.5560 0.1965 0.0024 - 0.4440 0.0472 0.0028 CL +0.2792 CF +0.3436
[0.0024 0.0040 0.0005 - 0.0024 0.0025 0.0023 CL 0.0071 CF 0.0144]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.5630 0.2039 0.0030 - 0.4370 0.0487 0.0056 CL +0.6516 CF +0.5999
[0.0028 0.0045 0.0007 - 0.0028 0.0041 0.0032 CL 0.0168 CF 0.0185]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
344 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050047150 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
One of the few cubes that went by the proper action in this match, D/T. (I cubed)
Cube #6
Match to 13, Blue trails 3 to 10
Blue on roll. Cube Action?131 142 Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.2371 (Money: +0.1559)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.5231
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.4769)
3. No double +0.5076 ( -0.0155)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.5636 0.1901 0.0116 - 0.4364 0.1518 0.0214 CL +0.2371 CF +0.5076
[0.0025 0.0024 0.0008 - 0.0025 0.0036 0.0031 CL 0.0075 CF 0.0131]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.5649 0.1840 0.0118 - 0.4351 0.1439 0.0313 CL +0.5532 CF +0.5231
[0.0032 0.0032 0.0010 - 0.0032 0.0038 0.0038 CL 0.0164 CF 0.0177]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
672 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050107418 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
He doubled here and I took. There's still a lot of stat. sig. that needs hammered out of this rollout but I've wasted enough CPU time on it. I am surprised it's a pass but I think I would take this cube again v. the same opponent.
Cube #7
Match to 13, tied at 0
Blue on roll. Cube Action?173 166 Board image courtesy of GO-Figure Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.6836 (Money: +0.6680)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.1295 ( +0.1295)
3. No double +0.9014 ( -0.0986)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.6760 0.3767 0.0517 - 0.3240 0.1054 0.0069 CL +0.6836 CF +0.9014
[0.0025 0.0027 0.0024 - 0.0025 0.0013 0.0004 CL 0.0088 CF 0.0214]
Player user owns 2-cube:
0.6766 0.3750 0.0530 - 0.3234 0.1015 0.0082 CL +1.4020 CF +1.1295
[0.0032 0.0034 0.0028 - 0.0032 0.0017 0.0008 CL 0.0220 CF 0.0321]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1347 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050145613 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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