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Thinking in platitudes (Rollout)

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Wednesday, 6 August 2014, at 11:55 a.m.

In Response To: Thinking in platitudes (Ian Dunstan)

To be a little kind to myself, I didn't see this position as being one where I was ahead in the race. I regularly play XG on competition mode now and that doesn't show you a pip count; the skill of somehow having a good approximation of the race lead (or deficit) just by feel, is one I don't have. If you know you are going to be 6+9=15 pips ahead after this roll then running the rear spare to the stripped midpoint makes a lot of sense (I'll have to remember Pottle's platitude, thanks Mary :)





White is XG Roller+

score: 0
pip: 145
3 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is ian dunstan
XGID=-aAC--D-B--acB--bc-cBbA---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:3:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout122/13eq: -0.075
Player:
Opponent:		47.29% (G:10.68% B:0.24%)
52.71% (G:7.71% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.096...-0.055) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 6/1* eq: -0.309 (-0.233)
Player:
Opponent:		42.08% (G:14.51% B:0.32%)
57.92% (G:12.76% B:0.76%)		Conf.: ± 0.023 (-0.332...-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout120/11* eq: -0.466 (-0.391)
Player:
Opponent:		39.94% (G:14.60% B:1.13%)
60.06% (G:20.40% B:2.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.030 (-0.496...-0.436) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 03 seconds
4.3-ply8/3 6/2eq: -0.434 (-0.358)
Player:
Opponent:		38.46% (G:8.69% B:0.14%)
61.54% (G:10.57% B:0.44%)
1 432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34823905
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Of interest to me was that the play I made in the original position is probably right in the variation below... 3 pips makes a huge difference.





White is XG Roller+

score: 0
pip: 145
3 point match
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is ian dunstan
XGID=-aAB--E-B--acB--bc-cBbA---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:3:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout16/2 6/1* eq: -0.073
Player:
Opponent:		45.92% (G:18.15% B:0.28%)
54.08% (G:11.16% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.090...-0.057) - [87.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds
2.Rollout122/13eq: -0.086 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		46.71% (G:10.06% B:0.19%)
53.29% (G:7.31% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.100...-0.072) - [12.7%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout120/11* eq: -0.421 (-0.347)
Player:
Opponent:		40.59% (G:13.65% B:0.61%)
59.41% (G:19.25% B:1.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.434...-0.407) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
4.3-ply8/3 6/2eq: -0.303 (-0.230)
Player:
Opponent:		41.26% (G:10.01% B:0.16%)
58.74% (G:9.35% B:0.38%)
1 Truncated at 11 moves using 4-ply.
216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76968175
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The 3 pips change my lead to only 3 before the roll, however that is relatively insignificant I think. What makes covering the 2pt and slashing away at the ace probably right is the unstacking of the 6pt which doesn't leave the 6pt stripped in the process. In this variation the stacked 6pt is apparently too ugly and this overrides the race lead play of shifting the rear blot to a stripped midpoint, but only slightly. A full rollout might see things differently.

20/11* isn't the right play until you shift the spare on the 3 all the way back to the 20pt. Losing 17 pips and gaining a stacked 20pt makes the hit on the 11pt right by a lot.

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