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Rollouts

Posted By: Misja
Date: Friday, 22 February 2008, at 8:03 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action; the bots disagree (Misja)

I was playing this position against Snowie and didn't double. Snowie's analysis did not agree, it said it was a double and a (small) drop. However a rollout turned Snowie's opinion around, it now thinks it is way too good and a huge drop.
Gnubg on the other hand initially said it was slightly too good and a drop: But after a rollout it now thinks it is a double and a drop.
I'm suprised that both bots have switched their opinion in a rollout, I would expect that one of the bots' evaluation was right and that its rollout would then be consistent with its evaluation.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, Misja 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 4: Misja to play 23

gnubg	203
Misja	104
Position ID: zCYIOGNmnjeAAA Match ID: cAmtACAAAAAA

• Misja doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0,708	(Money: +0,744)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1,000
2.	Double, take	+1,621	+0,621
3.	No double	+0,966	-0,034
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0,632 0,492 0,031 - 0,368 0,041 0,002 +0,708 +0,966 Standard error 0,002 0,002 0,002 - 0,002 0,001 0,001 0,006 0,009 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0,628 0,506 0,026 - 0,372 0,052 0,004 +1,840 +1,621 Standard error 0,002 0,003 0,002 - 0,002 0,003 0,001 0,018 0,020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050087628 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Snowie (Green) vs. Snowie (White)
5 point Match

Match to 5. Score Green-White: 0-2

Move 14 Green		Pip: 203
		Game 2 5 point match Green-White: Score 0-2
		Pip: 104

Cube action equity
Rollout	Money equity:	0,751
	2,1% 51,0% 63,6% 36,4% 5,1% 0,2%
	95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0,751 ±0,020, - live cube no double: 1,148 ±0,037, - live cube double take: 1,690 ±0,051. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 21345 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, seed 1, with race database.
Evaluations
1.	Double, pass	1,000
2.	No double	0,997	(-0,003)
3.	Double, take	1,626	(+0,626)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Live cube
1.	No double	1,148
2.	Double, pass	1,000	(-0,148)
3.	Double, take	1,690	(+0,543)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass			21%

This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 8:17:21, 20-2-2008(Export v2.10)

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action; the bots disagree
  Misja -- Wednesday, 20 February 2008, at 7:36 a.m.
  • Cube action; the bots disagree
    pontiac -- Wednesday, 20 February 2008, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Cube action; the bots disagree
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 20 February 2008, at 5:44 p.m.
  • Cube action; the bots disagree
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 20 February 2008, at 10:23 p.m.
  • Cube action; the bots disagree
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 5:15 a.m.
  • Cube action; the bots disagree
    Stick -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 12:15 p.m.
  • Cube action; the bots disagree
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 3:14 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Misja -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 8:03 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Stick -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 8:25 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Misja -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 9:01 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Stick -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 9:09 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 8:03 p.m.
      • Snowie MET or G11 MET
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 9:41 p.m.
    • Rollouts(mine)
      neilkaz -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 8:43 p.m.