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Wisconsin Open Semi's Cube decision - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Thursday, 7 August 2014, at 12:29 a.m.

In Response To: Wisconsin Open Semi's Cube decision (Keene)

is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 109
11 point match
pip: 91
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-AaB--EBE-----aa-bacbbb---:0:0:1:00:8:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.35% (G:3.25% B:0.04%) 73.99% (G:3.14% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.65% (G:2.63% B:0.05%) 26.01% (G:2.70% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.492 +1.392
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.838 (-0.162)±0.003 (+0.834..+0.841)
Double/Take:+1.033 (+0.033)±0.008 (+1.024..+1.041)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74648402
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

So, D/P. There was some debate I believe at the time, and afterwards as to what the correct actions should be. OTB, I counted the pips, and recalled something that NK had once said to me: These stacky positions tend to convert quite quickly. I confidently flipped it, and didnt really worry about the bad shakes. I promptly threw 66, however was unable to win the gammon, and Vadim came back from 10-7C to win the match.

K

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