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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout for all those who weren't sure
Posted By: happyjuggler0 In Response To: Rollout for all those who weren't sure (Stick)
Date: Friday, 22 February 2008, at 4:51 p.m.
If nto for QF I would've been gobsmacked at this rollout. I would've been even more floored if 13/8 had come in second place, even barely. I'd have been decimated if 13/8 had lost by a decent amount of equity (0.020 perhaps?).
P.S. I'd make fun of Chuck for not knowing how to spell statistics, but I don't even know what the significance of 0.5 jsd's is, although I am bright enough to know it is further towards the middle of the curve than "we'd" normally prefer. Furthermore, he'd kick my ass 1000 ways to Monday (whatever that means) in statistics, probability, and anything in math more involved than balancing my checkbook.
That said, I agree that it is not the proverbial "dead heat", there is significance to the 15,000+ result. One pet peeve of mine is in newspaper/tv journalists who wrongly claim a lead in a political race is statistically even if it is within the margin or error for a poll. They are wrong, it simply means that instead of being right perhaps 95% or more of the time if it had been conducted with a radically larger sample, it is merely right perhaps 80% of the time instead. A 4 to 1 chance of getting elected in a political contest is hardly "a dead heat".
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