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Rollouts

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 22 February 2008, at 8:03 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Misja)

Three comments:

1. Snowie's 95% confidence interval equals ±1.96 SDs, not 1 SD.

2. The bots' rollouts have "switched" their opinions in the sense that the cube action recommendations have changed. But look again at the evaluations. Gnubg (with Snowie MET) says ND = 1.012, Snowie says ND = 0.997. That's only a 0.015 difference. If the numbers weren't hovering around the ND/D line, we'd probably not even notice. For instance, if they said ND was 0.432 and 0.447, we'd probably just say that the bots "agree."

3. If your goal is to compare bots in match play, they ought to use the same match equity table. Otherwise it's hard to know what effect the MET has on whatever difference there is in the rollouts. Unfortunately, I think Snowie is stuck with the Snowie table. But you can have Gnubg use Snowie's table. For this position, perhaps MET makes little difference. Who knows? Hard to say, without doing a rollout.

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