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Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 4:48 a.m.

In Response To: Standard cash, or am I TGTD here? (DC-Ohio)

I ignore the 0-1/9 score, except to note that I would be slightly less likely to take than in a money game (and remind myself to review the effect of win and gammon percentages on cube decisions at similar scores).

From the bkgm.com glossary:

Too Good (to Double). A position which you should not double, even though your opponent has a clear drop, because your equity is higher by playing on for a gammon.

So ask yourself:

(1) are you certain that opponent has a clear drop?
(2) if so, is it possible to roll badly and gain your market? Point being, if the pass is clear, but you win some gammons, and no sequence of rolls can hurt, you might as well play on for a roll.
(3) if you play on, how often do you win a gammon? how often do you lose?

My answers are

(1) I'm not sure, but I believe I would pass. If it might be a bare take, it must be a double.
(2) Absolutely. 4-4 and 6-4 blot, and some other numbers stack your spares very awkwardly. Even if you think it is definitely a drop now, you don't have a free roll to play on for gammon. Things could go horribly, immediately wrong. In fact it looks like a minority a numbers (like 3-2) probably give you a happy play-on, while many (like 6-3 or 4-3) give you the same difficult decision that you have now.
(3) Since I'm not sure White has a take, it must be (unless my evaluation is way off) that White wins (at least) nearly as often as he needs to win in order to take. Figure a gammonless moneygame takepoint of 22%. White must win more often than that, since he needs to offset his gammon losses. Even if you are sure it is a pass, it can't be that big of a pass, so White must win substantially more often than 22%. Fortunately, neither of us need to figure out exactly how often White wins. Whatever bald estimate we make, we realize that there's no way that Blue's gammon wins can be twice his single losses. So Blue can't be too good to double.

Messages In This Thread

• Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
  DC-Ohio -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 11:27 p.m.
  • Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
    Stick -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 1:43 a.m.
    • Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
      garyo -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 5:10 a.m.
      • Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
        Stick -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 8:33 a.m.
        • How about an explanation of this quirkiness *NM*
          Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 5:58 p.m.
        • Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
          Stick -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 7:24 p.m.
  • Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 4:48 a.m.
  • Standard cash, or am I TGTD here?
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 4:50 a.m.
  • CL $ SW RO
    Stick -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 9:11 a.m.
    • Gnubg Cubeful €-game RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 12:15 p.m.
    • CL $ SW RO
      bob koca -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 5:05 p.m.
      • CL $ SW RO
        Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 6:02 p.m.
  • GNU RO at score:
    DC-Ohio -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 12:57 p.m.