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Rollout for all those who weren't sure

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 6:59 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout for all those who weren't sure (Chuck Bower)

0.5 standard deviations means about 69::31 edge. So you are right, if you were going to bet on a VERY LONG rollout (not this gimpy 15,000 trial rollout of Stick's) you should be giving or laying 2::1.

As I understand it, 69% confidence corresponds to about 1 standard deviation. 0.5 standard deviations corresponds to about 38% confidence.

Messages In This Thread

• I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
  Stick -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 6:49 a.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    Walfinho -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 10:43 a.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 12:40 p.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 1:50 p.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    happyjuggler0 -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 2:29 p.m.
    • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
      Keene -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 3:21 p.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 3:57 p.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 5:10 p.m.
  • I know what you're playing, but are you sure?
    MandM1951 -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 6:53 p.m.
  • Somebody's getting a QF lesson (NT) *NM*
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 7:59 p.m.
    • What does QF mean? (NT) *NM*
      adambulldog -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 8:18 p.m.
      • What does QF mean? (NT)
        Keene -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 8:32 p.m.
      • What does QF mean? (NT)
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 21 February 2008, at 10:26 p.m.
  • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
    Stick -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 7:19 a.m.
    • Don't forget your statistics
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 1:53 p.m.
    • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
      happyjuggler0 -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 4:51 p.m.
      • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 22 February 2008, at 5:04 p.m.
        • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 6:59 a.m.
          • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
            Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 5:55 p.m.
        • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
          Tom Keith -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 9:28 p.m.
          • Rollout for all those who weren't sure
            Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 10:38 p.m.
          • balance sheet
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 February 2008, at 3:08 p.m.