I stopped my rollout when I saw Neil posted a msg saying he started his. The computer he uses has a much faster processor and if all else fails we should be able to combine rollouts to figure out which play is best.
It would appear though that pointing on the 5pt is too rich. It releases outfield control for the most part (even if the blot isn't hit it will soon be moved) and there are quite a few shots, if you count the hitting aces combined with the hitting doubles I believe you get a full 10 shots. I don't think anyone would hesitate to make the 5pt if there were 4 checkers on the midpoint instead of 3.
It is still important to fight for the 5pt though. You're losing the race, you have more men back, and being hit isn't costly in the least. When you're missed though you'll be able to cover and not lose the midpoint. In that variation you've also demobilized the 10 checkers I have in the zone, all they can do now is go behind your anchor, makes the game tough for me.
The score (after 2 games) is: Stick 1, Readers 2 (match to 15 points)
| Stick | 151 |
|---|---|
| |
| Readers | 178 |
Position ID: 4NvBASHgOeYAMQ Match ID: cAnyARAAEAAA | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 24/20(2) 13/5* | +0.0300 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 831 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049930296 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| • | 2 | R | 13/5*(2) | +0.0113 ( -0.0186) | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 831 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049930296 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | R | 24/20(2) 11/7(2) | -0.0617 ( -0.0917) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 252 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049930296 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||