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Rollout for all those who weren't sure

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Saturday, 23 February 2008, at 9:28 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout for all those who weren't sure (Chuck Bower)

Chuck wrote: To me the biggest problem (and it's HUGE, IMO) with political polls isn't the issue of statistical uncertainty but systematic uncertainty. Every pollster knows (at least they claim they do) that the sample should be a representative cross section of the electorate. Then they go and ask 1000 people they've selected by some convenient method and try to give you the impression that their sample is representative.

I guess what you're talking about is, for example, that a telephone poll only polls people who: (1) have a telephone, (2) are at home when you call, (3) are willing to give an answer, and (4) give an honest answer. Presumably pollsters have a way to account for this. But maybe I'm assuming too much.

This reminds me of the poll question: "How many opposite-sex partners have you had in your lifetime?" Mathematically the average should be the same for men and women, but I've heard that polls consistently give a much higher number for men.

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