BGonline.org Forums

What am I not getting here?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 25 February 2008, at 2:20 a.m.

In Response To: What am I not getting here? (Walfinho)

However, one of the moves is a triple whopper.

According to the evaluation. It's not really that bad. But

When not hit,

Back up a moment. After 4/off 4/3 White hits immediately 20/36 of the time, after 4/off 3/2* only 16/36 of the time. That's a difference of 11.1% hits.

If Blue is missed, it's true that 4/off 4/3 gets hit more often next roll, but that's only if White has already missed, which after either play reduces the chance of getting hit two rolls from now . Exactly how often Blue gets hit two rolls from now depends on whether White stays on the deuce point. But I figure the chance of Blue getting missed and then getting hit two rolls from now is roughly 5% after 4/off 4/3 and about 14.5% after 4/off 3/2*, a 9.5% difference, which favors leaving 11.1% fewers hits on White's first roll instead.

And Blue must win a few more gammons with 4/off 3/2* just by putting White on the roof for one roll; White will fan, losing a whole roll (plus 2 pips) 11.1% of the time on Blue's two point board.

Also, although hits and rolls after White's second roll from now don't matter much, but I think I'd rather have the smaller stack on the 3 point and the chance of making the 2 point that 4/off 3/2* gives.

Messages In This Thread

• What am I not getting here?
  Walfinho -- Monday, 25 February 2008, at 12:03 a.m.
  • What am I not getting here?
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 25 February 2008, at 2:20 a.m.
    • What am I not getting here?
      misja -- Monday, 25 February 2008, at 2:05 p.m.