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Comparing 65R-31P-52S-63, 54S-63, and 31P-52S-63

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 30 September 2014, at 5:30 a.m.

In Response To: Magriel BG page 61 O to play 63 (leobueno)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/5*	eq: -0.2036
	Player: Opponent: 45.65% (G:12.60% B:0.50%) 54.35% (G:17.03% B:1.22%) Conf.: ±0.0036 (-0.2072...-0.1999) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 day 01 hour 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: -0.2260 (-0.0224)
	Player: Opponent: 45.12% (G:9.22% B:0.37%) 54.88% (G:15.21% B:0.57%) Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.2290...-0.2229) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 hours 54 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/18 8/5*	eq: -0.2280 (-0.0244)
	Player: Opponent: 45.27% (G:11.07% B:0.48%) 54.73% (G:17.16% B:0.85%) Conf.: ±0.0038 (-0.2317...-0.2242) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 day 17 hours 14 minutes
4.	Rollout2	13/4	eq: -0.2534 (-0.0498)
	Player: Opponent: 44.13% (G:10.59% B:0.38%) 55.87% (G:15.07% B:0.84%) Conf.: ±0.0074 (-0.2608...-0.2459) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 42 minutes
5.	Rollout2	24/21 13/7	eq: -0.2609 (-0.0574)
	Player: Opponent: 44.02% (G:10.80% B:0.42%) 55.98% (G:15.62% B:0.77%) Conf.: ±0.0081 (-0.2690...-0.2529) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 hours 05 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81051797 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81051797 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Rollout by David Rockwell 2012-Jul-30 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.xx 54S-63-dr.xgp [H R22 X24 $50 Z57] "<31**5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comparing the 65R-31P-52S-63 from Magriel to 54S-63 may provide additional insight. That one surprises many because it slots the 7pt in the face of a direct 6 from the 24pt. A bit of reflection reveals that what it does not do is also offer aces as hitters, the way that 24/18 does.

Like Pavlov's dogs we play 24/18 because we are so conditioned to doing it in the opening. Usually, there is no better 6. In your position from Magriel, the 6 from the midpoint is clearly safer than other 6s. It also brings another checker to the place where the action is. This is a case where the play that gives you the most potential is also the safer play!

Getting back to the comparison with 54S-63, I suspect that playing to the 7pt would be correct in your position even White had a second checker back on his 24pt.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-db-A-A-:0:0:-1:63:0:0:0:0:10
31P-52S-63: Blue to play 63

What do you think?

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• Magriel BG page 61 O to play 63
  leobueno -- Tuesday, 30 September 2014, at 2:20 a.m.
  • Magriel BG page 61 O to play 63
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 30 September 2014, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Comparing 65R-31P-52S-63, 54S-63, and 31P-52S-63
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 30 September 2014, at 5:30 a.m.
    • Comparing 65R-31P-52S-63, 54S-63, and 31P-52S-63
      David Presser -- Wednesday, 1 October 2014, at 6:21 a.m.
      • 31P-52S-63 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 1 October 2014, at 4:02 p.m.
        • 31P-52S-63 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 1 October 2014, at 11:33 p.m.
  • Magriel BG page 61 O to play 63
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 30 September 2014, at 7:21 p.m.
  • Magriel BG page 61 O to play 63
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 October 2014, at 3:48 p.m.