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Interesting Cube Action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 14 October 2014, at 4:18 p.m.

In Response To: Interesting Cube Action (David Presser)

I'll take a crack at the money version because I hate to see positions posted with no responses. (Where's David Rennie when you need him?) I may try the ATS version later.

In practice I think the double is clear, without too much thought, because some might drop.

To work it out more carefully, I guess I should examine the take/pass decision first. How many rolls hit? Any direct 3 or 6, plus 51 52 55 21; that's 27 shots. A single hit isn't gin by any means because of Blue's gap on the 6pt. However, Blue has excellent chances of picking up more than one checker. 66 63 62 53 33 all hit more than one checker immediately, and I think we can approximate these as being gin. The 19 rolls that hit once are still very good and I would guess give Blue 16 wins out of 19.

If Blue misses, how well is White doing? She still has work to do to clean up. Of course if she does clean up then she has gammon chances. If my estimates above are correct then she only needs 6 out of 9 wins (if not hit) to take, with gammons counting 50% extra.

All in all the take looks pretty close, so it should be a big double theoretically as well as practically. I'd probably take for money, but without confidence.

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting Cube Action
  David Presser -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 8:26 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube Action
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 14 October 2014, at 4:18 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube Action - Rollout
    David Presser -- Thursday, 16 October 2014, at 4:59 a.m.