OTB, I hit, which is the DMP play (of course) and, according to an XG rollout, the money play by a small margin (see below). However, ATS, the computer prefers to buy later rather than buy now, by a rather large margin.
I didn't spend a lot of time on this even though I was just playing XG and wasn't constraining myself to play fast. Part of the reason was that I was pretty sure that I would not increase my chances of arriving at the right play because from experience I knew that I was not going to be able to estimate wins and gammons well enough. Keene asked if I was really interested in the checker-play decision or in the clock question. The answer is both. I was curious as to how many players felt that they could estimate wins and gammons well enough to benefit from spending a lot of extra time here. If neilkaz and JOH can't arrive at the right estimates confidently then the answer must be, "very few."
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 81 | | 7 point match | pip: 119
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BC---CAa--B--bB-B-c-cbbb-:1:1:1:52:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/5 6/1 | eq: -0.806 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.31% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
86.69% (G:7.59% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.809...-0.802) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/4 | eq: -0.833 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11.82% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
88.18% (G:7.23% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.836...-0.829) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 15/8* | eq: -0.864 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24.80% (G:1.78% B:0.01%)
75.20% (G:33.95% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.869...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 81 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BC---CAa--B--bB-B-c-cbbb-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/8* | eq: -0.731 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.17% (G:2.08% B:0.05%)
74.83% (G:35.11% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.736...-0.725) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/5 6/1 | eq: -0.752 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.79% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
86.21% (G:8.53% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.757...-0.748) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10