First of all, I accidentally didn't post the exact position from the match as in the actual match all of the outfield checkers were 1 pip closer to White's home board (should add a little equity for White, the taker). My rollouts are for the posted position.
My approach for the position started with Timothy's analysis (Blue has 28 hitting numbers. You missed 11) and that as hopeless as a take may seem for White, he can't get gammoned, has many gammons if missed and very strong cube vig. Therefore, I considered it as a clear dbl/take for money (I did see some remotely similar "wild" positions to have the confidence to think so). To see the strength of the cube vig and gammons, I have added a rollout for an 8 cube if Blue fans (1 out of 9).
However, the score changes everything as my gammon leverage is lowered, but is still worth ~0.4, and I have a lot of cube vig with a 25.6% TP for an 8 cube (playing for the match or being behind 2a-5a). I decided that I still have the strength of the gammons and cube vig and with an un-adjusted 4 cube TP that is a little higher than for money, I decided to take. I rolled a scenario of a fan for Blue ATS too and it is not a redouble as Blue has over 40% and White is giving away his gammon leverage by sending an 8 cube.
In the game itself, I was doubled and took. Blue closed his board with three of my checkers on the bar and I hit a late shot which I could play very aggressively and take extra risks to win because I couldn't lose a gammon and shouldn't care about balancing risks for that. This, in part, justifies the clear take for money and close one ATS. Oh yea, I lost the game, so according to my one game rollout it was a pass...
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| XGID=abFAD-A--b--A-------bbbbb-:1:-1:-1:00:5:6:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 78.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.14% (G:10.53% B:1.00%) | 21.68% (G:10.67% B:2.96%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.438 | +1.083 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.657 (-0.325) | ±0.005 (+0.652..+0.662) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.982 | ±0.009 (+0.973..+0.991) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.018) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88492775 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 5 minutes 36 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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| XGID=abFAD-A--b--A-------bbbbb-:2:1:1:00:5:6:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 58.76% (G:38.36% B:12.97%) | 58.55% (G:39.33% B:13.41%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 41.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 41.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.487 | +0.499 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.555 | ±0.004 (+0.551..+0.559) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.499 (-0.056) | ±0.004 (+0.494..+0.503) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.445) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.1% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88492775 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 7 minutes 09 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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| XGID=abFAD-A--b--A-------bbbbb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 77.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.12% (G:10.16% B:1.02%) | 22.46% (G:10.09% B:0.94%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.466 | +0.881 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.654 (-0.073) | ±0.004 (+0.650..+0.658) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.727 | ±0.010 (+0.717..+0.736) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.273) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88492775 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=abFAD-A--b--A-------bbbbb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.87% (G:37.98% B:4.20%) | 59.82% (G:37.68% B:4.50%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 40.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.619 | +1.236 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.735 (-0.165) | ±0.004 (+0.731..+0.739) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.900 | ±0.009 (+0.891..+0.909) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.100) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 88492775 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10