Here's some more information, courtesy of XGR++. It seems to me to confirm that the overkill after 13/11, dance is the key factor.
Note that with the cube turned, the decision is close, in part because of the extra gammon losses of 13/11.
After 7/5, dance (ATS):
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 133 | | 7 point match | pip: 114
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBADB-----bB-c-c-bbBb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.45% (G:32.64% B:0.24%) | 61.81% (G:33.52% B:0.26%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.55% (G:8.03% B:0.41%) | 38.19% (G:8.51% B:0.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.477 | +1.053 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.680 (-0.217) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.898 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.102) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
After 7/5, dance (for money):
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 114
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBADB-----bB-c-c-bbBb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.45% (G:32.88% B:0.24%) | 61.87% (G:33.35% B:0.26%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.55% (G:7.96% B:0.41%) | 38.13% (G:7.96% B:0.40%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.477 | +0.980 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.601 (-0.093) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.695 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.305) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
After 13/11, dance (ATS):
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 133 | | 7 point match | pip: 114
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBACBA---AbA-c-c-bbBb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.97% (G:36.65% B:0.28%) | 67.35% (G:37.95% B:0.31%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.03% (G:6.28% B:0.34%) | 32.65% (G:7.02% B:0.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.645 | +1.405 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.846 (-0.154) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.263 (+0.263) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
After 13/11, dance (for money):
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 133 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 114
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-BBACBA---AbA-c-c-bbBb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.13% (G:36.57% B:0.27%) | 67.49% (G:37.55% B:0.30%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.87% (G:6.10% B:0.30%) | 32.51% (G:6.73% B:0.41%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.647 | +1.314 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.811 (-0.189) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.078 (+0.078) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Checker-play decision ATS with the cube turned (this one could stand a full rollout):
 
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 129 | | 7 point match | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBaCBB----bB-c-c-bbBb---:1:-1:1:32:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 7/4* | eq: -0.005 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.30% (G:21.92% B:0.24%)
50.70% (G:12.40% B:0.66%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 7/5 7/4* | eq: -0.009 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.86% (G:20.78% B:0.16%)
51.14% (G:9.10% B:0.41%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 7/4* 4/2 | eq: -0.026 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.38% (G:18.22% B:0.14%)
50.62% (G:9.97% B:0.53%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2