OtB I told my partner I didn't care what he did. I thought it was a small ND and since there was no hope under this side of Maui that Neil Inc. would pass this, it was either a double or it wasn't. I also didn't mind if it was a small ND as we're playing Neil and we're in a position I think even I can play out flawlessly most of the time.
Turns out this is a much bigger ND than I had thought. If we use the Keith count alone and call this a race with no contact it's a D/T. Given the contact favoring them, they're behind in the match, all of it should have pointed to waiting a turn. I should have looked more closely at the position but we got away with it.
| 87 |                        |
| 78 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.3982 (Money: +0.3988)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.6205
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3795)
3. Double, take +0.5515 ( -0.0689)
Proper cube action: No double, take (15.4%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.6909 0.0267 0.0008 - 0.3091 0.0104 0.0001 CL +0.3982 CF +0.6205
[0.0007 0.0009 0.0003 - 0.0007 0.0005 0.0000 CL 0.0015 CF 0.0037]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.6935 0.0252 0.0005 - 0.3065 0.0104 0.0001 CL +0.7613 CF +0.5515
[0.0007 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0004 0.0000 CL 0.0032 CF 0.0044]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
894 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1055336729 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]