Just like Casper says, it was pretty clear to me OTB that not hitting was the DMP play, given the pretty healthy racing lead, a position relatively easy to bring home against the 18p anchor if we can just clean up our outfield blot, the big difference in number of shots and the decent offensive structure of our opponent.
Some donkey once (no, not once) told me that if there is a clear DMP play (by at least 3 percentage points or so) and it is not obvious to make another play, then I should make the DMP play. So I did. I'm not going to pretend it was by biggest mistake of the match :)
A few things I noted: *shots are fewer after the DMP play, but (except for 61) much more severe *hits with 31 51 are not that fantastic since he has to either slot in his home board (with me on the bar), or break anchor pretty loosely *non-hitting 6s from the bar suck for him and are almost as bad as dancing *when he just enters with some random deuce, he is pretty much indifferent when it comes to the choice between staying back on the 23 and moving the guy to safety on the anchor. This was a small misjudgement on my part, because I felt that guy would be a pain in the ass back there (which he would, DMP wise, but not equity wise) *His 66 55 44 33 are very fine numbers otherwise, but 33 44 66 obviously dance, and 55 gets a lot worse too after the hit, since he is down by 22 pips instead of 6 after his move
In addition, I simply thought that the hit won less gammons than it does, given his outside anchor, his ok front positon and my non-fantastic offense and willingness to protect my racing lead and advantage.
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| XGID=-A-BD-BbC--B----abceb-A---:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 61 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/16* 4/3 | eq: +0,410 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/15 | eq: +0,380 (-0,030) | |||
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| 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10