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31P-22E-41E-54 -- Rollout and analysis

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 12 December 2014, at 5:06 a.m.

In Response To: 31P-22E-41E-54 (Igor)

There are three candidates to consider:

1. Running 22/13
2. Bringing two down 13/9 13/8
3. No-name 13/4

Let's first discard 13/4 as it puts a checker into a wrong spot and it's too early in the game to splay super safe.

Two down brings some ammunition to annoy white's split checkers while also duplicating her fours. But white would be happy to hit our blot with a four and gain an upper hand in the race.

Should we even consider running off the anchor? First, we are slightly ahead in the race after the roll and running escapes one back checker. Second, how costly could it be to leave the anchor? White has only 8 checkers in the zone, so this is a perfect time to run off that mediocre anchor.

I also like Mike's observation that white has an upper hand in the priming contest. All positional features indicate that our best game plan here is to race.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BaC-C---eE---b-cc-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:6
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	22/13	eq: -0.113
	Player: Opponent: 48.55% (G:7.41% B:0.32%) 51.45% (G:13.26% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.119...-0.106) - [100.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: -0.138 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 46.19% (G:10.79% B:0.37%) 53.81% (G:11.57% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.145...-0.131) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 14 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.139 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 46.02% (G:12.40% B:0.45%) 53.98% (G:12.15% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.147...-0.132) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 35 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38711904 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 31P-22E-41E-54
  Igor -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:54 a.m.
  • 31P-22E-41E-54
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 1:18 a.m.
  • 31P-22E-41E-54
    Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 2:07 a.m.
    • 31P-22E-41E-54
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 2:34 a.m.
      • 31P-22E-41E-54
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 9:55 p.m.
  • 31P-22E-41E-54 -- Rollout and analysis
    Igor -- Friday, 12 December 2014, at 5:06 a.m.