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Rollout - if White has a closed board

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 7 March 2008, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

In Stick's rollout, White wins 22.97% (cubeless) after doubling. That's less than I had estimated. If we give White a closed board (but still no free spare checker to play), White wins about 1% more often (cubeless) after double/take:

The score (after 0 games) is: White Rabbit 0, Blue Cheese 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 5: Blue Cheese on roll, cube decision?

White Rabbit	86
Blue Cheese	74
Position ID: u20DAAbd3MYAAA Match ID: cAmgAAAAAAAA

• Blue Cheese doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.526	(Money: +0.524)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.883
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.117
3.	No double	+0.824	-0.060
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.757 0.017 0.000 - 0.243 0.008 0.000 +0.526 +0.824 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008 Player White Rabbit owns 2-cube 0.760 0.017 0.000 - 0.240 0.007 0.000 +1.034 +0.883 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.006 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
281 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056701747 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.515 (Money: +0.516)
0.752 0.023 0.000 - 0.248 0.010 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.818
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.182)
3. No double +0.780 ( -0.037)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• Stick v. Keene - Cubage
  Stick -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 7:27 a.m.
  • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 8:02 a.m.
    • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
      Peter G. -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 8:14 a.m.
      • correction
        Peter G. -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 8:16 a.m.
  • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 3:40 p.m.
  • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
    Caryl Stephanson -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 6:43 p.m.
  • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
    Keene -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 10:47 p.m.
    • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
      Stick -- Thursday, 6 March 2008, at 10:50 p.m.
      • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
        Keene -- Friday, 7 March 2008, at 2:58 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 7 March 2008, at 8:23 a.m.
    • Rollout - if White has a closed board
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 7 March 2008, at 9:33 p.m.
  • Stick v. Keene - Cubage
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 7 March 2008, at 8:20 p.m.