It's clear to cover the slot, and then bringing a checker down with the deuce is probably a hair better than splitting.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AD-D---dD---d-d-a--B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: +0.236 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.24% (G:18.10% B:0.88%)
44.76% (G:12.94% B:0.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.234...+0.238) - [98.5%]
Duration: 7 hours 00 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/5 | eq: +0.232 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.28% (G:17.06% B:0.81%)
44.72% (G:12.39% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.230...+0.235) - [1.5%]
Duration: 7 hours 11 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 8/5 6/4 | eq: +0.214 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.95% (G:17.38% B:0.89%)
45.05% (G:13.02% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.209...+0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 24/21* 13/11 | eq: +0.163 (-0.073) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.52% (G:16.34% B:0.95%)
46.48% (G:12.64% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.154...+0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46549488
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46549488
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46549488
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jul-14
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
51$-52$-32-tm.xgp
[O C4 A22 H73] "<=62*15 5
[C=O A13 H67 U93] "&e
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Next, let's try some other Slot(5pt)-Slot(4pt)-32 third roll positions.
In 51$-32%-32 white has better priming potential and we should split.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AD-D---dD-a-c-d-a--B-:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 23 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 8/5 | eq: +0.226 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.22% (G:16.81% B:0.89%)
44.78% (G:12.54% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 8/5 | eq: +0.175 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.84% (G:17.14% B:0.95%)
46.16% (G:13.58% B:0.67%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 8/5 6/4 | eq: +0.163 (-0.063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.84% (G:17.05% B:0.97%)
46.16% (G:13.95% B:0.81%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/21* 13/11 | eq: +0.163 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.21% (G:16.71% B:1.15%)
46.79% (G:12.45% B:0.70%) | |
|
Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-Jan-06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
51$-32%-32-ie.xgp
[C O51 A63 H64] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Same idea in 62$-32%-32, but notice how hitting goes up relative equity. The difference with 51$-32%-32 is that covering the slot gives us a stripped 8pt and stacked 6pt here, but in 51$-32%-32 the distribution of spares is much better.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AE-C---dD-a-c-d-a--B-:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 23 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 8/5 | eq: +0.174 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.67% (G:17.17% B:0.93%)
46.33% (G:13.14% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/21* 13/11 | eq: +0.134 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.28% (G:16.90% B:1.18%)
47.72% (G:12.72% B:0.69%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 8/5 6/4 | eq: +0.119 (-0.054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.43% (G:17.45% B:0.97%)
47.57% (G:14.59% B:0.84%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 24/21* | eq: +0.110 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.84% (G:15.81% B:1.04%)
48.16% (G:12.31% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 8/5 | eq: +0.094 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.68% (G:16.92% B:1.00%)
48.32% (G:14.49% B:0.72%) | |
|
Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-Jan-15
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
62$-32%-32-ie.xgp
[C H40 A54 U64 O80] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Next, compare 62$-52$-32 with the OP and 62$-32%-32. We didn't unload any checkers from the 6pt, so slotting with deuce should always be a potential candidate.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AE-C---dD---d-d-a--B-:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 23 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/4 | eq: +0.185 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.89% (G:18.34% B:0.92%)
46.11% (G:13.55% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.180...+0.189) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/5 | eq: +0.175 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.70% (G:17.21% B:0.78%)
46.30% (G:12.96% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.171...+0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: +0.163 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.17% (G:18.08% B:0.92%)
46.83% (G:13.69% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.155...+0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10722901
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10722901
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-Jan-15
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
62$-52$-32-ie.xgp
[A C10 O22] "<=20*5 |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Same theme in 62$-63$-32.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AE-C---dD---c-e-a--B-:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 23 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/4 | eq: +0.221 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.74% (G:18.74% B:0.93%)
45.26% (G:13.78% B:0.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.213...+0.230) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/5 | eq: +0.182 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.02% (G:17.48% B:0.81%)
45.98% (G:13.51% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.175...+0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: +0.176 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.76% (G:18.27% B:0.89%)
46.24% (G:14.08% B:0.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.168...+0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10722901
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-Jan-15
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
62$-63$-32-ie.xgp
[A C39 O45] "<=5 |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10