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How do you play it? Prelim RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 12 March 2008, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: How do you play it? Prelim RO (Dan Pelton)

In complicated positions, 0-ply rollouts are surely good for one thing: comparing them to 2-ply rollouts.

Stepping up to 2-ply, I thought two rollouts might be needed here:

(1) 24/16 ... rollout of Double/Take

(2) 8/5 8/3 ... rollout of Double/Take

The reason is that at this score Gnubg 2-ply doubles after 24/16 but does not double after 8/5 8/3. Its match evaluation after 8/5 8/3 underestimates opponent's No Double equity by about 0.130 EMG and Double/Take equity by about 0.200 EMG.

For money Gnubg doubles after both plays on both 0-ply and 2-ply.

It turns out that a short 2-ply rollout of 8/5 8/3 ... Double/Take suggests that the Double decision is close, so it doesn't make too much difference after all. But if you do just one 2-ply rollout of the 5-3 play, note that Blue's equity if he plays 8/5 8/3 is probably a little lower than your rollout will indicate.

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