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Woolsey's law

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:53 a.m.

In Response To: Woolsey's law (Daniel Murphy)

The kinds of positions I have in mind are the "TG/take" and positions close to it. They don't actually have to be TG/take so long as you aren't sure whether it's TG/take (or TG/pass) or not, I think.

Viz.: 52: 24/22 13/8 55: 8/3*(2) 6/1*(2), 66: dance 43: 13/10 13/9, 66: dance 32: 13/11 13/10:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 3, Blue 5 (match to 7 points)

Move number 8: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	169
Blue	135
Position ID: 4HPwAWAzTi0BMA Match ID: cAngADAAKAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.4279)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+1.4774	(Money: +1.1040)
	0.7762 0.5780 0.0180 - 0.2238 0.0432 0.0013
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.0475
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	-0.0475
3.	Double, take	+0.6196	-0.4279
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, take

OK, I suppose passing is a massive error. But suppose I mis-estimate my chances to be closer to 82% than 78%--4% is a fairly reasonable margin of error, if a little bit on the loose side. Or, maybe I can find a position that meets all of my criteria if I play around with GNU enough, but for now I'll just be satisfied that it meets some of them.

The truth is OTB I might be unsure as to whether this is a take or a drop from White's point of view, but I wouldn't double this in a million years.

Messages In This Thread

• Woolsey's law
  PersianLord -- Wednesday, 12 March 2008, at 11:53 p.m.
  • Woolsey's law
    Stick -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 12:00 a.m.
    • Woolsey's law
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:57 a.m.
      • Woolsey's law
        Stick -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 5:05 a.m.
        • Woolsey's law
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 3:14 p.m.
  • Woolsey's law
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 12:11 a.m.
    • Woolsey's law
      PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 12:24 a.m.
    • Woolsey's law
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 1:34 a.m.
      • Woolsey's law
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:09 a.m.
        • Woolsey's law
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:53 a.m.
          • Woolsey's law
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:57 a.m.
            • Woolsey's law
              Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 6:37 p.m.
              • Woolsey's law
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 9:17 p.m.
                • Woolsey's law
                  Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:21 p.m.
                  • Woolsey's law
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:54 p.m.
                    • Woolsey's law
                      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 14 March 2008, at 1:52 a.m.
                      • Woolsey's law
                        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 14 March 2008, at 3:11 a.m.
      • Woolsey's law
        PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 5:52 a.m.
        • Woolsey's law
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 2:08 p.m.
  • Woolsey's law
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 1:41 a.m.
    • Woolsey's law
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 1:48 a.m.
      • Woolsey's law
        PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 5:48 a.m.
        • Woolsey's law
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 2:11 p.m.
    • Woolsey's law
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 1:53 a.m.
      • Woolsey's law
        PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 6:12 a.m.
    • Woolsey's law
      PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 6:03 a.m.
      • Woolsey's law and formal logic
        Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:36 a.m.
        • ... and use of the inverse phrasing
          Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:50 a.m.
        • Woolsey's law and formal logic
          PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:59 a.m.
          • Woolsey's law and formal logic
            Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 11:08 a.m.
            • Woolsey's law and formal logic
              PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 11:24 a.m.
              • Woolsey's law and formal logic
                Bryce -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 12:46 p.m.
              • Woolsey's law and formal logic
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 2:34 p.m.
      • Woolsey's law
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:29 p.m.
        • Woolsey's law
          PersianLord -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 5:07 p.m.
          • Woolsey's law
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 6:41 p.m.