| |
BGonline.org Forums
Woolsey's law
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Woolsey's law (PersianLord)
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 4:29 p.m.
You should NOT double (~q), if your opponent is SURE of taking/dropping (~p)>
That's wrong, and it doesn't follow from the Woolsey rule.
(1)
if your opponent is SURE of taking/dropping (~p)
Break that down: If you are sure opponent is taking or dropping, then you are either (a) sure that he's taking or (b) sure that he's dropping. Which is it? It can't be both.
If you're sure he should take, then correct cube action is either ND/T or D/T. The fact that you're sure he has a take does not tell you whether you should double. If you're sure he should pass, correct cube action is either D/P or ND (too good)/P. The fact you're sure he should pass does not tell you whether you should double.
Here's an analogy. You're in a store and want to buy bananas. You're not sure whether the bunch of bananas is approaching the peak of 100% perfection, or is slightly overripe. The Banana rule says, buy the bananas. If they're just short of perfection, you'll love the taste. If they're slightly overripe, they won't be too bad to eat.
But if you're sure the bananas are overripe, the Banana rule does not tell you not to buy them. They might be only slightly overripe, but still good eating, or they might be black and rotting. And if you're sure the bananas are not yet 100% ripe, the Banana rule does not tell you not to buy them. They might be edible now, or they might be weeks away from ripening.
(2)
The Woolsey rule isn't about what your opponent thinks he should do; it's all about what you think he should do.
You have a cube decision. You ask yourself: is it a pass or a take? You answer yourself: not sure! What does that tell you? It tells you that subject to the limitation of your own ability to judge a position, the take/pass decision is close.
So, either your opponent has a bare take, in which case you should double, because you can't be not good enough to double if you're opponent has only a bare take, and you can't be too good to double if your opponent has a take; not doubling has to be an error.
Or, your opponent has a bare pass, in which case you should double, because you can't be to be too good to double if your opponent has only a marginal pass, and you can't be not good enough to double if your opponent should pass.
I'll bet every aspiring player went through a phase where cube decisions were confused in this way: Maybe I'm not good enough to double ... wait, I think he should pass ... wait, maybe I'm too good! ... oh, but what if he takes? The Woolsey rule cuts through that crap. It says: focus on the take/pass decision. If you're not sure about the take/pass decision, double. Always. What can happen?
Either (1) Your estimate isn't too bad.
Then either (a) It's a close take. You're glad you doubled. You're especially glad if opponent passes. Either way, you gain. Or (b) It's a close pass. You're glad you doubled. You're especially glad if opponent takes. Either way, you gain.
Or (2) Your estimate is off.
Then either (a) It's too good to double. Alas, your double was a mistake. However, it could well be that your mistake was not large; after all, you thought opponent might have a take. And if you thought he might have a take, maybe he will take, probably a much greater error than your double. Or (b) It's not good enough to double. Again, your double was a mistake. But again, your mistake might not be large, since you thought opponent might have a pass. And again, if you thought he might pass, maybe he will!
In the Democratic primary, if you're not sure whether Obama is better than Clinton, then you should vote for Obama or Clinton.
Therefore, if you are sure that Obama is better than Clinton, or sure that Clinton is better than Obama, you should not vote for either of them.
Not!
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.