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BGonline.org Forums
Woolsey's law
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Woolsey's law (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 6:37 p.m.
Ok, point taken.
The Woolsey Law suggests: trust your judgment. If you judge a position to be a close take/pass (either way, you gain whether or not opponent makes the correct decision), it's not likely to be too good (if it is, doubling is probably not too bad), and it's not likely to be not good enough (if it is, doubling is probably not too bad), and if it is too good or not good enough, you still may benefit if your opponent's judgment is as bad as yours.
In money games, we can translate all gammon wins/losses into an equivalent single win/loss figure, namely, equity. At certain match scores, that doesn't work, because one or the other player can simply ignore the gammons. So we get positions that are too good to double because of the gammon wins, but are takes because of the single losses, ignoring gammons. So a position can be a close take/pass, and also be definitely too good.
Leading 2-away 4-away, Leader must remember that his doubling window is very narrow. In a gammonless position the bottom of the window is about 80%. The top is (and always is) about 82%. As gammon wins increase, the bottom of the window rises. If about 25% of wins are gammons, the doubling window closes completely. Which means that, with a sizable gammon chance, you shouldn't even think of doubling, and applying the Woolsey Law. With little or no gammon chance, however, the Woolsey Law still applies.
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