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Woolsey's law

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:54 p.m.

In Response To: Woolsey's law (Daniel Murphy)

I think we could agree that the Woolsey Law presumes that one has some skill in evaluating positions and knows something about one's doubling window and opponent's take point.

I like to think that I have some skill in evaluating positions ;) I'm no match equity guru, though. And I know the MET for 5-away, which I can extrapolate to 7-away, but I'm not very good OTB when it gets to 9-away or more. I don't play enough of those matches or look at METs enough. I guess I could learn Neil's numbers and the Crawford/2-away scores.

In a straight race in a money game, one would use a race formula. If that leaves one unclear whether it's a take, then WL: it must be a double.

Kleinman is good, because it can be interpolated for various match scores, but I don't do Kleinman. I generally just look at the pip count and guess based on what feels right these days. I could do Keith or EPC or whatnot, if I had to, but those don't adjust for match scores. You could adjust by making each pip ~1.5%-2%, but that leaves a fairly wide margin of error.

These new examples are all straight races at a match score.

I used straight races because they're very simple positions, but of course I believe it applies to contact positions as well.

If one doesn't know that Trailer's takepoint on a 2-cube trailing 9-away 4-away is not 22% but about 6.5%, then I must agree that the Woolsey Law won't be of much use. But if one does know one's match equity table, then the Woolsey Law is just as useful as in a money game.

I'll admit that I wouldn't have known it was 6.5%, although I could come reasonably close by estimating.

I'm not interested in this on some theoretical level, pointing out that WL doesn't apply to TG/T to show that Kit missed something. My interest is purely practical: when I'm ahead in a match and don't know whether it's a take or a drop, I often roll (not always, of course, and my interpretation of WL tells me I should be more inclined to double than otherwise, so I have to take that into account). My reasoning is that the error tends to be the reverse of money games: incorrectly passing or taking is not as big of an error as incorrectly doubling. Am I wrong here?

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