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Woolsey's law

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 14 March 2008, at 1:52 a.m.

In Response To: Woolsey's law (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I like to think that I have some skill

Certainly. My thinkings out loud are not directed at you personally.

I don't do Kleinman.

Me neither. Finding point of last money take with another formula and adding 1.5% for greater pip leads and subtracting 2.25% for lesser pip leads should work pretty well.

F.ex. pip lead 60-80, last money take 60-68 = 78%, 60-80 = 94%. Close.

F.ex. your first race example pip lead 64-82, last money take 72.4, 78% + 9.6 * 1.5% overestimates actual GWC by about 0.75%.

I'm not interested in this on some theoretical level, pointing out that WL doesn't apply to TG/T to show that Kit missed something. My interest is purely practical:

Ok, and I appreciate that this discussion has brought out that the Law works well in money games because we have a good idea of our doubling window and where the take/pass line is. Our best guess that a cube is either a take or a pass narrows the range of our error pretty specifically. If we don't know where the take/pass line is at a match score, we can't make that guess. But if we know our match equity tables and doubling windows, that should be a big help in guessing whether a cube is a close take or close pass.

My reasoning is that the error tends to be the reverse of money games: incorrectly passing or taking is not as big of an error as incorrectly doubling. Am I wrong here?

No, that sounds reasonable. If Trailer's passing nets little match equity, then taking a close pass can't cost much. But because of recube vig, Leader's early double can be very costly.

With regard to the positions you have in mind, where you have a match lead and don't know if a position is a take or a pass, I think you're saying that the Law shouldn't be applied because it's likely that applying it may lead to a very bad decision. I think I'm saying that the Law can't even be applied if we don't know where the doubling window and take/pass line are. My six for your half dozen?

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