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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 14 March 2008, at 4:00 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. March 13th - Cube (Stick)

Stick's overall chances are good enough to cube at this score, but he lacks serious marker losers and probably should wait as no one seemed close to passing this.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, user 5 (match to 15 points)

Move number 4: gnubg on roll, cube decision?


 '2X2O '2X4X '3X ' ' '3O

1O1X2O '2O2O '2O ' ' '3X

Pip counts: gnubg 124, user 153
Position ID: mc3gAEbGnoMDEA Match ID: MAHgASAAKAAA

• gnubg doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0198)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4614(Money: +0.4444)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.7095 
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2905
3.Double, take +0.6897 -0.0198
Proper cube action:No double, take (6.4%)
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.66460.18050.0061-0.33540.06940.0019 +0.4614 +0.7095
Standard error0.00140.00170.0004-0.00140.00140.0002 0.0036 0.0091
Player user owns 2-cube0.66890.17730.0058-0.33110.06640.0023 +0.9088 +0.6897
Standard error0.00170.00200.0004-0.00170.00120.0002 0.0078 0.0110
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1223 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056115543 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

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