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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: OLM Thurs. March 13th - Cube (Stick)
Date: Friday, 14 March 2008, at 4:00 a.m.
Stick's overall chances are good enough to cube at this score, but he lacks serious marker losers and probably should wait as no one seemed close to passing this.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, user 5 (match to 15 points)
Move number 4: gnubg on roll, cube decision?
Pip counts: gnubg 124, user 153
Position ID: mc3gAEbGnoMDEA Match ID: MAHgASAAKAAA
• gnubg doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.0198)!
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.4614 (Money: +0.4444) Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.7095 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.2905 3. Double, take +0.6897 -0.0198 Proper cube action: No double, take (6.4%) Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6646 0.1805 0.0061 - 0.3354 0.0694 0.0019 +0.4614 +0.7095 Standard error 0.0014 0.0017 0.0004 - 0.0014 0.0014 0.0002 0.0036 0.0091 Player user owns 2-cube 0.6689 0.1773 0.0058 - 0.3311 0.0664 0.0023 +0.9088 +0.6897 Standard error 0.0017 0.0020 0.0004 - 0.0017 0.0012 0.0002 0.0078 0.0110 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1223 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056115543 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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