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OLM Friday March 14th

Posted By: MandM1951
Date: Friday, 14 March 2008, at 11:14 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Friday March 14th (Stick)

If we make our 4 point, White has slightly over a 50% chance of fanning. As it stands now (with our 3 point board), he has a 25% chance of fanning.

In any event, he needs to use half his roll to enter, so he would have to hit loose on any of our blots on his side of the board. We can safety our blots in his board with 24/22. It does, after all, make an anchor. Then we could move our blot on his bar out of double-shot land with 18/16 or 18/14. If we stop at the 16, we could play 13/9, adding a builder for our 4 point (but exposing us to a 4-5 fly shot). Or we could play the safer 18/14 13/11.

I really don’t know. My inkling is to sort of KISS and make the 4 point. So my vote is 8/4(2).

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