The difference between 21/15(2) and 20/14(2) still surprises me. For those who think the decision is easy—can you explain the variants to me?
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 176
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B-BC---A-eB----bcBBbbA-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/14(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.265 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.83% (G:17.99% B:0.58%)
44.17% (G:12.37% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.251...+0.279) - [100.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/15(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.178 (-0.087) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.03% (G:16.53% B:0.57%)
45.97% (G:11.85% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.165...+0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 1. O.K., aiming at the open 8pt may count for something, but it doesn't seem to be the main issue.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 186
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BC-B-A-eB----bcBBbbA-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/14(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.246 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.12% (G:14.87% B:0.62%)
42.88% (G:14.63% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.231...+0.261) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/15(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.197 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.99% (G:14.13% B:0.59%)
44.01% (G:14.28% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.182...+0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 2. Haven't rolled this out yet, but clearly something happened here. No need for extra contact since White has two checkers back?
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 142 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 186
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---BC-B-A-dB----bcBBbbA-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 20/14(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.582 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.81% (G:18.87% B:0.91%)
35.19% (G:11.35% B:0.42%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 21/15(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.576 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.65% (G:18.27% B:0.84%)
35.35% (G:10.73% B:0.41%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release