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CS or LLV - Crime scene or Leaving LV Comment
Posted By: svilo In Response To: CS or LLV (svilo)
Date: Wednesday, 1 April 2015, at 10:03 a.m.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1577 point match pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=----bBE-B---cDb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:7:10 Blue to play 54
1. XG Roller++ 24/15 eq: -0.047
Player:
Opponent:49.41% (G:9.08% B:0.30%)
50.59% (G:11.55% B:0.33%)2. XG Roller++ 24/20 13/8 eq: -0.076 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:48.64% (G:9.73% B:0.32%)
51.36% (G:12.15% B:0.36%)3. 3-ply 13/8 6/2 eq: -0.113 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:47.50% (G:10.39% B:0.33%)
52.50% (G:13.20% B:0.56%)4. 3-ply 24/20 6/1 eq: -0.156 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:46.49% (G:10.17% B:0.29%)
53.51% (G:13.78% B:0.55%)5. 3-ply 13/9 13/8 eq: -0.188 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:44.88% (G:11.09% B:0.37%)
55.12% (G:13.52% B:0.65%)
Crime Scene
If you or both get drunk on a First date, what is the good policy? You do not want to hang on. You leave the crime scene lest you "commit a crime" and spoil a good start.
Even if we succeed to make the golden anchor we are not the favorite because he made the silver anchor and brought down wood in the form of the 11 anchor.
Playing without a split does nothing so the UP - 24/20 is evident. The rest of the move 13/8 then seems quite clear (stay put with a useful slot -but under the gun- and add to the stripped 8)
Now comes the evaluation part (is "leaving the CrimeScene 20/15 - R better or is the 13/8 S play better.
In a normal situation (when we are not drunk), we would like to hang on (slotted) AND improve the 8. But here we don't really need so much BOTH the 8 spare and the Golden anchor. The Golder anchor is 6 away from the already made 11 and the 8 surplus only helps to make a not-so-efficient Barpoint in front of his Silver anchor.
The R has subtle virtues: Prepares to run and thus have a OMB game. A blot hitting contest may turn beneficial because we are one point ahead. The R play conforms with Magriel's Bold critetions - temporary postional advantage but good prospects for the enemy to improve.
I also liked 13/8
I wodner how many would pick the right move OtB
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
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