[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 24 April 2015, at 5:06 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas 1 (John O'Hagan)

I was Black in this position in a 1st round match vs. Drew Giovanis, a world class player. Drew recubed which is clear per the Woolsey rule. I then figured the true tp (after adjusting for g's and cube vig) to be around 35%. Do I win this often?

White has 23 good numbers here: Any 6, the 8 numbers that make the 4-pt, 33, 21, 11. I guessed I'd win about 25% of these. White's other 13 numbers aren't so good. I estimated I'd win 6 of these 13. My total wins are then less than a third so I passed.

The RO agrees but it is close. Can't blame anyone for taking this since White's position is the harder one to play (i.e. How does White play some of his bad numbers like 53,51,43,32?)

is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 143
15 point match
pip: 141
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=aaaB-BC-CA--bB----acb-bbB-:1:1:1:00:7:7:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.31% (G:35.12% B:5.49%) 67.31% (G:35.18% B:10.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.69% (G:11.71% B:1.31%) 32.69% (G:12.31% B:2.53%)
Cubeless Equities +0.653 +1.231
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.853 (-0.147)±0.007 (+0.846..+0.859)
Redouble/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)±0.012 (+1.017..+1.040)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.