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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 24 April 2015, at 3:38 p.m.

In Response To: Vegas 2 (John O'Hagan)

I chose to run out and that is slightly better than making the deuce. It is real close because staying back gives you a direct shot on 8 numbers and a double shot on 2 more. Plus, Black's chances of making the bar aren't very good so you'll probably be able to run out with your next 6.

OTOH, running out now gives you about 40% chances if Black doesn't roll one of his 5 hit and covers and you'll get full value out of your high doubles. If you stay back, D6,D5, and D4 aren't nearly as good.

Is Black supposed to hit with his other 3s that don't cover? Accd to XGR++, it depends. No with 63 or 53 but yes with 32 and 21.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
1 point match
pip: 131
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----BCC-B--AdC---d-dab--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10
to play 63

1.Rollout124/15eq: -0.248
Player:
Opponent:		37.58% (G:0.88% B:0.05%)
62.42% (G:2.17% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.250...-0.247) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 5/2eq: -0.253 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		37.35% (G:4.83% B:0.15%)
62.65% (G:5.86% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.255...-0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout213/4eq: -0.260 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		36.99% (G:4.60% B:0.33%)
63.01% (G:5.98% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.264...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout213/7 11/8eq: -0.262 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		36.89% (G:4.49% B:0.33%)
63.11% (G:5.76% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.266...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 11 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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