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about those doubles

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 30 April 2015, at 8:26 p.m.

In Response To: about those doubles (Phil Simborg)

Let's assume that you are a 65% - 35% favorite against me in a 15 pt match, and that we are models of consistency, so when we run the bot analysis, it always shows that you had a 65% chance to win. In all my wins, I am the luckier player, and in all your wins, you are, because the difference in skill is not enough to have you win as unluckier player (luck measured in MWC).

So what happens is that in 65% of the cases you are luckier, and in 35% of the cases I am luckier. And in 100% of the cases the luckier player wins.

But my luck in my wins is, on average, 65/35 times as big as your luck in your wins.

This is how I understand it - in the long run we have all an equal amount of luck, but the weaker player needs to amass more of this luck in a single match than the stronger player.

I suppose this has all been said before, and probably more concisely and mathematically precise.

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