I thought you might be working off the figures from XG's opening database which is a 3 ply and a 3 ply red rollout. Perhaps these stronger rollouts will let you sleep better at night with the difference being not quite so large.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--a-E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:46:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 46 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2 6/2 | eq: -0.177 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.40% (G:12.89% B:0.46%)
54.60% (G:15.09% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.182...-0.172) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: -0.199 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.79% (G:9.61% B:0.41%)
54.21% (G:15.05% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.204...-0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10099974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:46:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 46 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2 6/2 | eq: -0.194 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.24% (G:12.13% B:0.40%)
54.76% (G:14.81% B:0.69%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.202...-0.186) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: -0.238 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.95% (G:9.32% B:0.37%)
55.05% (G:15.71% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.246...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66408651
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release