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@Opening play junkies: 54S-64 and 53S-64

Posted By: Tenland
Date: Thursday, 14 May 2015, at 8:54 a.m.

In Response To: @Opening play junkies: 54S-64 and 53S-64 (Tenland)

Thanks for the input, all.

Stick, you are right about my "source of truth" and also that 0.02 will make me sleep better at night. 0.045 just felt like too much based on the reasons I could come up with.

What I thought of was basically the number of indirects, and while 55 can be discounted a bit as Neil says, I think so can 54 to some extent in the 54S case, as it would otherwise have anchored on the 20p against a made deuce - pretty good.

Then perhaps I hade some very slight general argument that while it's very possible to race after P, R leans even more towards racing, and our race is 1 pip worse after 54S.

21 and 42, which Igor mentioned, seem to be quite relevant rolls.

42 hardly even hits (0.03) after 53S-64R, and if we knew he would roll 42, it would actually still be almost a blunder to choose P instead of R. Needless to say, opp is much better off with 42 after we run compared to point in the 54S position (0.14).

Like Igor says, 21 gets a lot better against the run after 54S, but very marginally better after 53S.

22 goes the other way compared to 21, but only happens half as often, and the equity difference is much smaller.

54S-64R strongly dupes 62... 53 has a bigger swing on 52 but smaller on 32, roughly cancelling out.

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