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Tipping the balance Positions

Posted By: svilo
Date: Sunday, 17 May 2015, at 6:57 a.m.

In Response To: Tipping the balance (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
7 point match
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---CBBB-b--bD---cbcBb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.80% (G:22.63% B:0.43%) 62.67% (G:23.07% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.20% (G:5.84% B:0.20%) 37.33% (G:5.88% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.430 +0.890
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.639
Double/Take:+0.600 (-0.039)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.361)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.8%

Golden point, best 4 prime, better board, 7 pips, enemy on the bar and the roll and it is not a double yet!

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
7 point match
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---CBBB----dD---cbcBb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.89% (G:22.36% B:0.26%) 65.89% (G:22.35% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.11% (G:4.22% B:0.11%) 34.11% (G:4.22% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.504 +1.038
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.735 (-0.034)
Double/Take:+0.769
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.231)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Even if the opponent has moved 6 pips to the midpoint, now it is already a double/take because of the lack of a bridge. With a bridge or even with a mediocre anchor on our 10 point he could clear the midpoint first and stay back with the anchor to try to help the prisoner. Now there is nobody to help him. He must act on his own.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
7 point match
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---CBBBb---bD---cbcBb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.41% (G:20.15% B:0.49%) 61.37% (G:20.50% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.59% (G:6.49% B:0.22%) 38.63% (G:6.34% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.371 +0.773
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.560
Double/Take:+0.475 (-0.084)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.440)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.8%

The opponent has moved BACK 2 pips to the 8 point. But it is MORE no double because of the better bridge. 8 is better than 9. In some positions the bar point is an ideal bridge.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
7 point match
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---CBBB---bbD---cbcBb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.44% (G:23.73% B:0.37%) 64.58% (G:23.70% B:0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.56% (G:4.82% B:0.16%) 35.42% (G:4.71% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.484 +1.006
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.731
Double/Take:+0.730 (-0.002)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.269)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.6%

Golden point, best 4 prime, better board, 3 pips, enemy on the bar and the roll. The tipping point! We could double in short matches or generally behind in the score. Here he has no bridge AND the cover of his own outfield is reduced. The "clear front point first" tactics does not give much. The help to the prisoner of the 11 point by the 11 point is miniscule.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145
7 point match
pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---CBBB--b-bD---cbcBb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.68% (G:23.91% B:0.40%) 62.64% (G:24.27% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.32% (G:5.40% B:0.18%) 37.36% (G:5.42% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities +0.445 +0.924
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.663
Double/Take:+0.633 (-0.030)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.337)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.6%

Neither foul nor fish! His second point is no more a direct bridge, but it helps somewhat the back checker and covers his own outfield most efficiently! Thus the "one guards two" tactics apply. After he clears the midpoint first, the 10 point will remain to help the prisoner, and to guard against our central point and our golden anchor. In spite of his communication problems, in a money game it is still not a double...

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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