[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM 20150614B The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Monday, 15 June 2015, at 6:40 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150614B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

All 1's are good for white but the return 1's give blue a chance to anchor on the 1-point. So for those 11 moves I guess it's 9-2 for white.

-------------------------------

What about the other moves:

9/36: Good:{D6,D5,D4,D3,D2,65,43}, blue is doing worse than a 4-pt holding game blue will have somewhere between 10-15% chance.

So between 1 and 1,5 points for blue.

10/36: Weakening:{63,62,54,42,32}, blue will score around 25%,

So let's say 2,5 points for blue.

6/36: Blot: {64,53,52}, blue has a hitting average of about 25%, plus later chances of somewhere around 10 to 15%, so 35 to 40% for blue.

I estimate 2 points for blue.

-----------------------------------------

A total of 7,5 to 8 for blue. That's about 21% for blue,

We should add a few % racing chance

and blue will have some more gammons than white, but he first has to hit. So let's add a few % again.

This all adds up to about 25%.

-------------------------------------

Should we be very careful AtS?

I don't think so.

I think blue has just enough reason to take the double.

Answer: Take

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.