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Late Cube Redouble Involving Math. Probably.

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 20 June 2015, at 8:07 a.m.

In Response To: Late Cube Redouble Involving Math. Probably. (David Rennie)

This is only a guess but for most I don't think there would be much, if any, math involved. Math that could be and should be involved is knowing the recube take point at 5a 5a (~26%), knowing how often a player with a semi crunched board wins with two checkers off assuming a closeout and perfect spare distribution (~6.5%), and then generally going through all the immediate sequences both for the player on roll and your replies and estimating how many market losing sequences there are/how you, as the taker/passer are doing.

It seems like a clear cube to me as two off isn't much of a dent as far as winning chances go. Any roll containing an ace is excellent, all doublets are solid, rolls that make the two point also fantastic, rolls make the ace point not the worst thing you've ever rolled and everything else still leaves you relatively ok. I would let it go and if it happens to be a take I would use the excuse that I was passing based on the weaker player/not wanting to jack up the stakes in a match v. said opponent. Always a nice rational fallback to have.

Stick

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