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Late Cube Redouble Involving Math. Probably.

Posted By: phil simborg
Date: Saturday, 20 June 2015, at 12:17 p.m.

In Response To: Late Cube Redouble Involving Math. Probably. (David Rennie)

The way I teach cube action in these "after the hit" positions is a step by step approach that I think is important.

First we need to know what the odds of winning are when you have a closed board with perfect bearoff and 2 checkers off. I have a table that shows your odds with 1-14 checkers off, and I give this table (in a power point on this subject) to all my students.

It's really not hard to memorize this table because it is a fairly logical progression, and like all important reference positions, you simply must know these numbers in order to quickly come to conclusions like Stick did in his reply that you can lose your market very quickly if you haven't already. Stick, or any good player who has studied this, would not even think about a cube if the opponent has 6 or 7 checkers off.

So first you need to have a foundation of references for winning odds with X number of checkers off.

Next, you need to know recube take points so you can weigh the position against the take point. I know that Stick uses 26 percent here, but that is an estimate of the live cube take point at 5away/5away. For simplicity purposes, I teach that the recube take points for 5a/5a, 4a/4a, and 3a/3a are 25, 33, 25. It's easy to remember and close enough.

So once we know that a closed board with perfect distribution wins about 94 percent, and once we know that the take point on the recube is 25 or 26 percent (higher than money where I use about 21.5), now we can make some educated guesses about the cube in this position.

The next step is ALWAYS Woolsey's Law. Is he taking? Even if you think he is taking, is there reasonable doubt about the take? Might you easily get a pass? That alone would make me double here, and even if the double is wrong, I know I would get enough passes to make up for the mistake, and I know that if I am wrong, I am still not in terrible shape having doubled this.

Now, if I am sure it is a take, then, as always, the ONLY reason to give the cube (other than the possibility of getting a wrong pass) is market losers. I see 14 numbers that make the 2 point, all 1's make the 7 point, and I don't see any anti-market losers for blue. Then of course you have to look at white's rolls, and only a joker that comes in and jumps out really hurts terribly. Not much, so clearly a double even if it is a take. So the double is clear.

The take is the hard part for me. I have to admit that in this particular position I would not be sure and when I am not sure I generally make my decision based on the human factors. I take this against a strong player because I want to gamble on the cube if I am playing a Giant...also, I am not likely to make checker errors in this position. Against a weak player, I would drop because I don't want to gamble and would rather grind out the match (unless I am really hungry and want to get to dinner soon.)

Now, in some positions I am more likely to take a cube that I think might be a pass when I think my opponent has a much tougher position to play and might make more checker errors, and while that is the case here, I don't think this is a particularly complicated position to play from either side.

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