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how to hit or how to not hit

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 21 June 2015, at 9:46 p.m.

In Response To: how to hit or how to not hit (Karol Szczerek)

Good problem!

I believe that usually, when we have a direct escaping number, it's better to hit. A closeout is huge and the best way to go for a closeout is to hit.

On the other hand, there are a few counter-indications here. If we hit 6/1*, then what's the 4? The most aggressive play is 11/7, but that duplicates (triplicates?) our own 6's. On the other hand, 13/9 doesn't give us any direct cover numbers. Also, White is almost out of time herself. If she doesn't roll a 6, then she'll probably crack her prime. 5's are particularly annoying for her, especially 54.

Not sure but I would probably not hit. I think 13/4 is better than 11/2 despite the slightly better outfield coverage of 11/2 because a dilly builder on the 2pt is inflexible.

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