Among checker play decisions that I've personally rolled out, this one might hold the record for "most variance remaining after 1296 trials". Still, the gap between the #1 and #2 play is so large that I'd be surprised if extending the rollout put another play on top.
I played 7/5*/2 OTB but the downside of getting hit is minimal compared to the downside of getting stuck behind White's blockade and being forced to crunch.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 203 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=bEBBBacB------bb-b-cAA----:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/18 7/5* | eq: +0.628 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.94% (G:57.01% B:1.30%)
36.06% (G:7.74% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.035 (+0.593...+0.663) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/5* 5/2 | eq: +0.497 (-0.131) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.40% (G:54.33% B:0.91%)
39.60% (G:7.65% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.469...+0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/18 20/18 | eq: +0.443 (-0.185) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.59% (G:51.64% B:0.71%)
40.41% (G:7.36% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.029 (+0.414...+0.472) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 21/16 | eq: +0.413 (-0.215) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.55% (G:50.85% B:0.65%)
41.45% (G:7.44% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.385...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release