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Prime time tactics 2 - ROLLOUT & VARIANT

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 8 August 2015, at 10:26 a.m.

In Response To: Prime time tactics 2 (Karol Szczerek)

I think we look at these PvP positions in similar way, Timothy, a once again You've made the same play as I did OTB.

I've figured that escaping with such lucky number is worth the extra shots with 5s. If we are missed we are quite good with attacking or priming prospects.

Once again I've underestimated one serious aspect of the position (just as I did in previous problem with the gap in our prime). Here it's the fact, that the opp's blots are split, so if we cover the 8-point, his 23pt. blot is not on the edge. Once again it turns out it's a huge one.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
13 point match
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaBBCBAA--bB--Abbcbb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 62

1.xgRollout116/8eq: +0,117
Player:
Opponent:		52,70% (G:16,15% B:0,84%)
47,30% (G:14,02% B:0,63%)		Conf.: ± 0,016 (+0,101...+0,133) - [100,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout124/16eq: +0,036 (-0,081)
Player:
Opponent:		51,96% (G:13,11% B:0,47%)
48,04% (G:17,84% B:0,72%)		Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,024...+0,048) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

In the variant below, where both opp's checkers are at the edge, the running play is correct.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
13 point match
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBCBAA--bB--Abbcbb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 62

1.xgRollout124/16eq: -0,072
Player:
Opponent:		50,07% (G:9,84% B:0,44%)
49,93% (G:17,26% B:0,78%)		Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,085...-0,059) - [100,0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout116/8eq: -0,219 (-0,147)
Player:
Opponent:		44,71% (G:10,54% B:0,43%)
55,29% (G:15,06% B:0,71%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,233...-0,206) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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